G20, NATO: US under Trump is not interested in the alliances?
In pursuit of America First, US President Donald Trump is dismantling globalisation which has come to define the world in the post-Cold War era, or at least dislodging America from the pivotal role it has played in globalisation.
Under American leadership, the world had got itself global institutions for trade, governance, security and social action.
Trump believes these have fallen way short of their aims and benefit other countries at America’s cost.
That’s why he want to keep his country first, and not interested in global alliance like G20, NATO, etc.
Attack on International Criminal Court
The latest in a series of Trump’s anti-globalisation steps is sanctions targeting people who work on International Criminal Court (ICC) investigations of US citizens or US allies such as Israel.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is wanted by the ICC over the war in Gaza.
In 2023, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, accusing him of the war crime of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine.
Russia has banned entry to ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan and placed him and two ICC judges on its wanted list.
The ICC is a permanent court that can prosecute individuals for war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and the crime of aggression against the territory of member states or by their nationals.
South Africa’s case against Israel
Rubio’s tweet should be understood primarily in the context of South Africa’s Stu genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which has been receiving growing international support.
The case had angered prominent Republicans such as Senator Lindsey Graham, who had called the ICJ a “joke” and its President Nawaf Salam “a raving anti-semite”. In November last year, Graham had warned countries that if they “help the ICC…and force the arrest warrant against (Israel’s Prime Minister) Bibi (Netanyahu) and (Yoav) Gallant, the former defense minister, I will put sanctions on you as a nation”.
The tussle between South Africa (and its allies) and countries and legislative bodies such as the US Congress that have sought to undermine the ICJ, continues.
During Trump’s First Term
It is also worth recalling that the first Trump administration (2017-21) imposed sweeping sanctions on the ICC and its officials.
The decision was reversed by the Joe Biden administration, which supported the ICC investigation into Russian war crimes in Ukraine.
But this support suffered after the ICC announced that it would seek arrest warrants against both Israeli and Hamas leaders.
The US House of Representatives passed a new ICC sanctions bill (H.R. 8282) that is currently under review by the Senate.
G20 Foreign Ministers meet
United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced on X that he would “NOT” attend the G20 Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, later this month.
South Africa, Rubio alleged, is “doing very bad things”, in the garb of the summit’s theme of “solidarity, equality, and sustainability”.
President Donald Trump had declared that “South Africa is confiscating land”, treating “certain classes of people VERY BADLY”, and that he would cut “all future funding” until the matter had been investigated.
Trump’s close aide Elon Musk has repeatedly claimed without evidence that South Africa, the country of his birth, follows an anti-white policy.
This reflects position of President Trump as he is not sending the foreign minister of united states for attending the meeting of G20 group.
What is G20 future ?
In the above understanding Rubio’s tweet would appear as being aimed not directly at G20 as a platform, but only at its current chair, South Africa.
However, it does raise serious questions about the new administration’s commitment to the multilateral organisation, if the US decides to stay away.
The G20 Foreign Ministers’ meeting is scheduled for February 20-21, and the Leaders’ Summit – which US President Trump, along with other Heads of State and Government including PM Narendra Modi, is expected to attend – for November 22-23.
During his first term, Trump pushed strongly for America First policies at G20, which led to both contestations and isolation on many issues.
However, he was successful in altering, in 2017, the emphasis of G20 from free trade to “reciprocal trade”, in alignment with his views on international trade and his then upcoming trade war against China.
Trump 1.0 did manage to shape the G20’s agenda, and the body made peace with the US role within it.
With its more radical and aggressive agenda, it is not certain that Trump 2.0 will necessarily value the role of G20, and will work towards building relationships of cooperation and support within the grouping.
What is concern of India?
In recent years India has conveyed that international institutions such as the G20 may be more suitable than organisations such as the UN in solving complex global challenges.
India’s own pivot towards leadership of the Global South has benefited significantly from the rising status of G20, and from India’s position within the grouping in recent years.
Given the objectives of the Biden White House relating to the Russia-Ukraine war and the US rivalry with China,
Washington was fully supportive of both New Delhi’s G20 presidency in 2023, as well as India’s leadership of the Global South to some degree.
This enabled India to present itself as a consensus-driving bridge between the Global North and Global South.
But the policy thinking and priorities of Trump 2.0 appear markedly different.
In the worst case scenario of the US either skipping G20 in South Africa or pulling out altogether, the grouping would unquestionably be weakened as a multilateral institution.
More worrying still, it could come under greater Russo-Chinese sway and influence as a result.
I would like to credit Ankit Agrawal, Teacher at StudyIQ IAS Youtube Channel for the context
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